1. Electrification
Electric loaders have sold over 10,000 units, mixer trucks have more than 50% market penetration, mining trucks have a strong replacement trend, and over 90% of aerial work platforms have been electrified. In 2024, the electrification of construction machinery will accelerate. Electrification is widely applied in multiple fields. Globally, although electrification has started, it is developing rapidly and has huge market potential. Technological advancements, particularly in battery, motor efficiency and intelligent control systems, have laid a solid foundation for electrification. Growing market demand and product innovation suggest a promising future for electrification. The industry expects that after technological breakthroughs and cost reductions, the penetration rate of electrification will exceed 30%, initiating a new round of growth. Traditional and emerging manufacturers have gained the upper hand through intelligent and unmanned development, and the electrification competition is expected to be more intense in 2025.
02 Intelligent
With growing market demand and product innovation, the new energy construction machinery industry has great potential. The new energy market is expected to shift from a growth stage to a highly competitive one by 2025. Companies need to further improve their "three-electric system" technology and accelerate the research and development and industrialization of pure electric, hybrid, hydrogen fuel and battery systems.
03 Positive-negative conversion
The excavator market turned positive in 2024, with a cumulative sales volume of 181,762 units from January to November, an increase of 1.93% year-on-year, and domestic sales volume of 91,231 units, an increase of 10.8%. The growth was driven by infrastructure investment and demand for equipment renewal, which boosted sales across multiple sectors. Meanwhile, the aerial work platform industry saw negative growth for the first time, with 72,000 units sold in the first three quarters, down 34 percent year-on-year. High market share and excess capacity are the main reasons. Despite the decline in the domestic market, exports from overseas markets have grown strongly. The excavator market is expected to enter a cyclical growth and remain stable; The aerial work platform market will shift from disorderly expansion to more rational and steady growth.
04 Intensified overseas competition
In the first 11 months of 2024, China's construction machinery exports reached 47.817 billion U.S. dollars, up 7.16% year-on-year.
With the intensification of international competition, Chinese construction machinery companies have achieved remarkable results in their overseas expansion and are shifting from product exports to industrial exports. In 2024, leading companies such as Zoomlion, Sany, XCMG and Liugong will accelerate their integration into the international market, with a more complete global layout and a significant increase in overseas market share. These companies have effectively increased their production capacity and global market share by establishing service outlets, subsidiaries and research and development institutions, and actively participating in international exhibitions and sales. Overseas revenue accounts for more than 50%, and the localization rate is about 90%. The main sales markets include countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, Asia, Europe and Africa, while North America, India, the Middle East and other regions are the main drivers of growth. Domestic companies are making a shift from "going out" to "going in" and "going up" through foreign investment and market expansion, driving growth. In the face of challenges in the domestic market, companies need to avoid cut-throat competition and rely on cost-effectiveness and technological innovation to protect the market and brand. It is expected that overseas markets will continue to be the main driver of growth by 2025, and China's construction machinery industry and leading enterprises will accelerate their internationalization process and further increase their global market share.
05 Super engineering equipment
In 2024, there will be significant technological innovation in the construction machinery sector. Super engineering and equipment will promote each other and drive technological leaps in the industry. The manufacturing and application of super-large tonnage tower cranes and 4,000-ton all-terrain cranes represent technological progress. The successful development of key components such as the slewing bearing of the super-large diameter shield machine and the super-large cylinder is an important milestone for the autonomy of supply chains and industrial chains. The development strategy of quality and technological innovation has broken the monopoly of international high-end brands, reshaped the global competitive landscape, consolidated industry barriers, and demonstrated the high-end quality of Made in China.
06 Unmanned intelligent lift
From January to November 2024, sales of tower cranes were 6,841 units, a 60% decrease from the previous year. Sales of trucks, crawler cranes and truck-mounted cranes also declined. The market slump was mainly due to reduced demand, limited new real estate and infrastructure projects, the industry's shift from growth to stock, and the difficulty in phasing out old equipment, which affected sales growth. On the contrary, smart construction hoists that do not require manual operation have seen a significant increase in sales due to their high-end, intelligent and green features, which reduce costs and improve safety and efficiency. Driverless smart elevators have been used in cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu and Wuhan, and have received favorable reviews.
07 Complete sets of mining machinery
Global mining investment growth and policy push, along with the improvement of mining machinery performance, have made this sector a hot spot in construction machinery, and market expectations are expected to expand. Manufacturers are developing and producing large, complete sets of equipment in an attempt to gain an edge in the market. The industry is shifting from single equipment to complete sets of equipment, and the business model is moving towards equipment manufacturing plus service model. At the recent Bauma China in Shanghai, leading domestic companies such as Zoomlion, XCMG and Sany showcased their large mining machinery, intensifying competition. With the application of digital and intelligent technologies, industry leaders plan to actively develop intelligent equipment, explore clean energy, and shift to low-carbon to zero-carbon technologies to promote green mining by 2025.
08 Large-scale equipment updates
In 2024, despite the promulgation of large-scale equipment renewal policies, market responses indicated that these policies did not achieve the expected results. The construction machinery industry has a large stock of equipment and a saturated market, and many enterprises do not urgently need to update their equipment in the short term. The equipment is expensive and requires a large amount of capital. Small and medium-sized enterprises, in particular, are under financial pressure and need to weigh the cost of renewal against potential benefits. If businesses expect unstable market demand, they may postpone their update plans and affect the policy effect. In terms of the update cycle, many devices have reached a new round of update nodes, approximately once every eight years. Starting from the second half of 2016 and entering the second half of 2024, it is expected that there will be significant equipment replacement demand in 2025.
09 Capacity is being phased out at an accelerated pace
Technological innovation and changes in project requirements are driving the shift of construction machinery solutions from traditional mechanization to intelligent integrated management and control, a trend that will be particularly evident in 2024.
At present, the intelligentization of the construction machinery industry is mainly reflected in unmanned driving, remote control and intelligent collaborative operation. At the 2024 Bauma exhibition, companies such as XCMG showcased excavating and loading robots, enabling "one person, multiple machines" and unmanned operations on "dark construction sites". Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry, among others, showcased unmanned and autonomous integrated solutions for intelligent collaborative operations. Intelligence has enhanced operational efficiency and safety, promoted sustainable development of the industry, and is of great significance to Chinese enterprises in global competition.
Looking ahead to 2025, the rapid development of AI and big data technologies will drive the wave of intelligence, and industry leaders will actively develop AI smart devices and promote advanced smart machinery. The construction machinery industry will face fierce competition in the existing market, and lagging enterprises will be eliminated. Enterprises need to adapt to the market, drive innovation, clarify strategies, attach importance to brand and customer loyalty, focus on talent cultivation, and maintain market insight and adaptability to achieve long-term development. Despite the volatile international situation and fierce market competition in 2024, China's construction machinery industry is facing challenges. However, with the global economic recovery and favorable policies, the new energy industry will gain more market opportunities, and internationalization, electrification and intelligence will bring technological breakthroughs. The development prospects of China's construction machinery industry will be brighter.
